Never trust the headlines…

Interesting comparisons | Free exchange |

Will things get a lot worse? Of course they could. But the financial market’s key leading indicators—stocks, corporate bond spreads, and the money supply—have all turned upward. With luck, that suggests we could be out of the depression by the second half of next year. To be sure, that has been the consensus forecast, but it’s a lot better than some of the multi-year slump scenarios now circulating.

My point is not that things aren’t dire, but maybe they are not as dire as all the doom-mongers say. Instead think about the incentives of the people reporting the numbers.

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