Using data

This post: Omegamom-Metal-Night got me thinking about music from those days. And I remembered one of big shows I went to see as a young adult—Van Halen

Jamie’s Cryin by Van Halen (youtube)

I had a broken toe, and was extremely drunk/stoned at the show. All I remember now about it is how my toe throbbed with each bass note (I was wearing steel toed boots to protect myself) and how I thought that the lead singer David Lee Roth was the devil. The entire thing was not my smartest move.

I would be shocked if L went in such a state to see a show, because then I might predict bad things for her future. But I did see such a show in that state and showed poor judgement at the time. It did not really lead to any bad things happen to me in the long run—at least no more than normal. Probably luck, but it’s a delicate thing to decipher.

My experience is data. I want to use those data to partially help predict her future and help her make good decisions. But how can I do so? It seems like an impossible task sometimes: The environment has changed in unknown ways, and she is a completely different person than me in so many ways. There is also ‘survivorship bias’ to worry about in deciphering my experiences, and the experiences of others. We need large samples of people, but even that cannot really help us with survivorship bias.

All that being said, it was a stupid decision, and I don’t think that guy is the devil anymore, either.

(update: wordpress won’t let me embed a youtube video today.)

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